Kamoa-Kakula Mine Copper Smelter to Begin Feeding, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $11,205.5/mt overnight, fluctuated considerably in early trading and touched a high of $11,268/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved down to test $11,138/mt, subsequently moved sideways and finally closed at $11,145/mt, down 0.78%, with trading volume reaching 21,300 lots and open interest reaching 333,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 89,100 yuan/mt overnight, fluctuated considerably in early trading and touched a high of 89,450 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved down and tested 88,550 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at 88,590 yuan/mt, down 0.56%, with trading volume reaching 70,700 lots and open interest reaching 223,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On December 2, the 500,000 mt/year Phase 1 copper smelter at the Kamoa-Kakula mine site officially started production on November 21, 2025, and is expected to begin feeding the first batch of copper concentrates before the end of the year. Before the start of production, there were about 37,000 mt of copper inventory at the Kamoa-Kakula site. With the capacity ramp-up of the smelter to reach full production, total copper inventories (including concentrate inventory at the smelter, copper pending sale, and copper in the smelting process) are expected to decrease to about 17,000 mt by 2026.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On December 2, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 220 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode prices were 88,430-88,890 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2512 contract fell from 88,840 yuan/mt to 88,340 yuan/mt, then stopped falling and rebounded, but only fluctuated around 88,620 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread was in Contango 80 to Contango 40 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to 1,400 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot trading is expected to maintain a pattern of holding prices firm amid weak supply and demand.

(2) Guangdong: On December 2, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 130 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 90 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 0 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 88,640 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 88,530 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices pulled back, downstream purchasing desire increased, and overall trading was better than yesterday.

(3) Imported copper: On December 2, warrant prices were $30 to $46/mt, QP December, with the average price up $7/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42 to $54/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$6/mt to $12/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in the first half of December.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on December 2, the futures closing price was 88,490 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 120 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 79,700-79,900 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,516 yuan/mt, up 334 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,150 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, the pullback in copper prices did not stimulate a recovery in purchase willingness among secondary copper rod enterprises, which maintained a wait-and-see stance. Affected by high copper prices during the day, transactions for both secondary copper rod and recycled copper raw materials were sluggish.

(5) Inventories: On December 1, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 2,375 mt to 161,800 mt. On December 2, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 927 mt to 30,568 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, Trump is expected to announce the US Fed Chairman candidate early next year, hinting that Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate. Additionally, Putin threatened to cut off Ukraine's maritime routes and intensify strikes, while holding lengthy talks with a US envoy. Fundamentally, the supply side remains tight, with high-quality copper supplies particularly scarce. Demand side, as copper prices pulled back, downstream purchase willingness recovered slightly but remained primarily for rigid demand. Overall, although copper prices are under short-term pressure and pulled back, the tight supply situation continues to support prices, and copper prices are expected to have limited downside today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]